Market Market Update &
Rental Survey

FALL 2025

MARIN MARKET UPDATE AND RENTAL SURVEY

Celebrating 50 Years in Marin’s Apartment Market

For half a century, Michael Burke has been dedicated to selling residential income properties in Marin County—one of the few agents to focus exclusively on this specialized market. Now officially joined by his wife, Pamela Burke, a licensed agent and long-time collaborator behind the scenes, they continue to lead the field in representing duplexes, fourplexes, and apartment complexes.

Selling income property is not like selling a single-family home. It requires an understanding of tax-deferral strategies, income analysis, lease reviews, tenant communication, and a tactful approach to property showings. Whether you're selling a two-unit duplex or a 30-unit apartment building, you deserve a specialist with decades of proven results.

Marin Rental Trends: Slow but Steady Climb

The Q2 2025 CoStar Survey reports Marin’s average apartment rent at $2,973/month—up 2.2% year-over-year and 5.0% above two years ago. Rents have largely plateaued in the past 12 months, but vacancy trends suggest growth ahead.

A balanced market typically has a 5.0% vacancy rate. Marin’s current rate has dropped to 4.3%, down from 5.0% in mid-2023. Lower vacancy puts upward pressure on rents. CoStar forecasts rents will reach $3,336 by 2029—a projected 15% increase (~3.0% annually).

Apartment Values: GRM Still a Reliable Indicator
While CAP rates remain in the 4.5–5.0% range, Gross Rent Multipliers (GRMs) continue to offer a quick comparison tool for property types:

• Duplexes: 14–18x market rent
• Fourplexes: 13–16x
• Small apartment buildings: 12–14x
• Mid-size complexes: 10–13x

Top-tier locations trade at higher GRMs, while properties with deferred maintenance or issues may fall below these benchmarks.

Sales Rebound in 2024

After a record-low in 2023, sales rebounded sharply in 2024:

• 4+ unit sales rose to 38 (vs. 24 in 2023), returning to historical averages
• Duplexes and triplexes jumped to 83 sales (vs. 54 in 2023)
• 37% of 4+ unit sales were off-market, underscoring the value of working with experienced, well-networked agents

Of all 4+ unit properties marketed on the MLS, we represented 21%—one in five of all buildings sold.

2025 is tracking to match or exceed 2024, with more larger buildings trading hands.

The Federal Reserve System

Overview:The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is the U.S. central bank and one of the world’s most influential financial institutions. It was created to ensure a safe, flexible, and stable financial system. The Fed consists of 12 regional banks and is governed by a board with 14-year staggered terms, ensuring political independence.

The Fed sets the federal funds rate—the interest rate banks charge each other overnight to meet reserve requirements. This key rate indirectly affects borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage, credit card, and business loan rates.

Rate History:

• 2009: Rates dropped to near 0% during the recession
• 2022–2023: Rates climbed over 5 percentage points
• Sep 2024–Nov 2024: Rates cut by 100 basis points (50 + 25 + 25)
• 2025: Held steady at 4.25%–4.50% due to inflation concerns from tariffs.

Next Moves:With signs of labor market weakening, the Fed is expected to resume rate cuts at its September and/or November 2025 meetings and continue easing into 2026.

GRM & CAP Explained

We’re often asked: What’s the difference between a CAP rate and a GRM?
CAP Rate (Capitalization Rate)The CAP rate is the expected return if a building is owned free and clear.

Formula:Net Operating Income (NOI) ÷ Price = CAP Rate
Example: $100,000 NOI ÷ $2,000,000 = 5.0% CAP

Accurate CAP rates depend on realistic expense data. Past-year figures that exclude repairs or use underpriced insurance don’t reflect what a buyer would face today.

GRM (Gross Rent Multiplier)

GRM is simpler—it compares the sale price to annual gross rent. If similar buildings sell for 15x gross rent, yours likely should too.

You can estimate CAP rates from GRM using a 37% expense factor:

18 GRM ≈ 3.5% CAP
14 GRM ≈ 4.5% CAP
10 GRM ≈ 6.3% CAP

We’re currently in a 4.5–5.0% CAP environment. As interest rates drop, CoStar projects CAP rates falling to 4.0–4.5%.

Example:$100,000 NOI =
$2,000,000 at 5%
$2,500,000 at 4%

These are general indicators—condition, rents vs. market, square footage, and location still matter greatly.

Deck Inspections: SB 721 Deadline Looms

Reminder: Under Senate Bill 721, all apartment buildings with 3+ units must have exterior elevated elements (e.g., decks, balconies) inspected and certified by January 1, 2026.

The process includes:

• Inspection by licensed professionals (e.g., engineers)
• Repair of hazards like dry rot
• Final certification of safety

Full details and resources are available at MarinApartments.com under “Resources.”

Visit at MarinApartments.com

Our website features:

• Current listings & recent sales
• Historical rent and market data
• Landlord resources (local & statewide)
• Weekly email updates (new, pending & sold listings)
• Free property evaluations—just email us at mburke@MarinApartments.com

Final Thought

Marin’s income property market continues to show strength and resilience—even amid rising regulations and elevated interest rates. Whether you’re evaluating, selling, or just staying informed, we’re here to help.

Michael & Pamela BurkeTop Producing Agents – Marin Apartment Marketmburke@MarinApartments.com | MarinApartments.com